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Invited Commentary on "Judgment and Causal Inference: Criteria in Epidemiologic Studies"
Winkelstein, Warren
ARTICLES
Oxford University Press
1995-04-15 00:00:00.0
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Reviews and Commentary: JUDGMENT AND CAUSAL INFERENCE: CRITERIA IN EPIDKMIOLOGIC STUDIES
SUSSER, MERVYN
HISTORICAL PAPER
Oxford University Press
1995-04-15 00:00:00.0
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http://aje.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/short/141/8/701
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Hypothesis: Low Serum Cholesterol, Suicide, and lnterleukin-2
Penttinen, Jyrki
COMMENTARIES
An excess mortality for violence (suicides and injuries) has been observed following the use of cholesterollowering drugs. It has been suggested that low cholesterol is associated with depression by modifying the serotonin metabolism. In this paper, a new hypothesis concerning the association among serum lipids, depression, and atherosclerosis is proposed. The hypothesis is based on epidemiologic evidence concerning serum lipids, depression, violent deaths, and atherosclerosis. It is also based on previous results concerning a cytokine, interieukin-2. Recent observations indicate that interleukin-2 has an important role in lipid metabolism, depression, and atherosclerosis. <it>Am J Epidemiol</it> 1995;141:716–18.
Oxford University Press
1995-04-15 00:00:00.0
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No Association between Serum Ferritin and Asymptomatic Carotid Atherosclerosis: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study
Moore, Marisa
Folsom, Aaron R.
Barnes, Ralph W.
Eckfeldt, JohnH.
ORIGINAL CONTRIBUTIONS
A possible association between body iron stores, measured as serum ferritin, and carotid arterial intimamedia thickening was investigated in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study during 1990–1992 using a matched case-control design. For a 143μg/liter greater serum ferritin concentration (the interquartile range), the odds ratio for cases with carotid intima-media thickening versus controls was 1.12 (95% confidence interval 0.97–1.30). However, there was no association (odds ratio = 1.00) after adjusting for major cardio vascular risk factors. This analysis of carotid arterial intima-media thickening, a measure of early atherosclerosis, in relation to serum ferritin does not support the hypothesis that increased body iron stores increase the risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. <it>Am J Epidemiol</it> 1995;141:719–23.
Oxford University Press
1995-04-15 00:00:00.0
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Coffee Consumption and Myocardial Infarction in Women
Palmer, Julie R.
Rosenberg, Lynn
Rao, R. Sowmya
Shapiro, Samuel
ORIGINAL CONTRIBUTIONS
Whether coffee consumption increases the risk of coronary heart disease has not yet been established. In a case-control study of nonfatal myocardial infarction among Massachusetts women aged 45–69 years in 1986–1990, 858 cases with first infarctions were compared with 858 community controls matched on age and town precinct. Detailed information on coffee drinking, cigarette smoking, and other factors was obtained by telephone interview. Relative risks (as estimated by odds ratios) and their 95% confidence intervals were computed from multiple logistic regression analyses that controlled for smoking and other risk factors. The risk of myocardial infarction increased with increasing number of cups per day among both drinkers of any type of coffee and drinkers of caffeine-containing coffee only: tests for trend, <it>p</it> = 0.002 and <it>p</it> = 0.0004, respectively. For consumption of caffeine-containing coffee alone, the relative risk estimates for 5–6 cups, 7–9 cups, and 10 or more cups per day relative to less than 1 cup per day were 1.4 (95% confidence interval (Cl) 0.8–2.5), 2.1 (95– Cl 0.9–4.9), and 2.5 (95– Cl 1.0–6.5), respectively. No increase was observed for fewer than 5 cups per day. The positive association with heavy coffee drinking was present among nonsmokers as well as smokers. These findings and other recent studies suggest that heavy coffee consumption increases the risk of myocardial infarction. <it>Am J Epidemiol</it> 1995;141:724–31.
Oxford University Press
1995-04-15 00:00:00.0
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oai:open-archive.highwire.org:amjepid:141/8/7322015-05-11HighWireOUPamjepid:141:8
Family History and Prostate Cancer Risk in Black, White, and Asian Men in the United States and Canada
Whittemore, Alice S.
Wu, Anna H.
Kolonel, Laurence N.
John, Esther M.
Gallagher, Richard P.
Howe, Geoffrey R.
West, Dee W.
Teh, Chong-Ze
Stamey, Thomas
ORIGINAL CONTRIBUTIONS
Increased risk of prostate cancer in men with a family history of the disease has been observed consistently in epidemiologic studies. However, most studies have been confined to white men; little is known about familial aggregation of prostate cancer in populations with unusually high incidence, such as African Americans, or in populations with low incidence, such as Asian-Americans. The authors report results from a population-based case-control study of prostate cancer among blacks, whites, and Asian-Americans in the United States and Canada. Controls were matched to cases on age (5-year groups), ethnicity (black, white, Chinese-American, Japanese-American), and region of residence (Los Angeles, San Francisco, Hawaii, Vancouver, Toronto). In the combined group of participants, 5% of controls and 13% of cases reported a father, brother, or son with prostate cancer. These prevalences were somewhat lower among Asian-Americans than among blacks or whites. A positive family history was associated with a statistically significant two- to threefold increase in risk in each of the three ethnic groups. The overall odds ratio associated with such a family history, adjusted for age and ethnicity, was 2.5 (95% confidence interval 1.9–3.3). This odds ratio varied by neither ethnicity nor age of the participants. Sera from 1,087 controls were used to examine the relations between family history and serum concentrations of androgens and prostate-specific antigen. The concentrations of sex hormone-binding globulin were slightly higher in men with than without a positive family history. Prostate-specific antigen concentrations were unrelated to family history. <it>Am J Epidemiol</it> 1995;141:732–40.
Oxford University Press
1995-04-15 00:00:00.0
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Incidence of Thyroid Cancer in New Caledonia, South Pacific, during 1985-1992
Ballivet, Shirley
Salmi, L Rachid
Dubourdieu, Dominique
Bach, François
ORIGINAL CONTRIBUTIONS
This study was designed to estimate the incidence and describe characteristics of thyroid cancer among several ethnic groups in New Caledonia, South Pacific. The authors located all of the new pathology diagnoses of primary thyroid cancer that occurred in the 164, 173 inhabitants (1989 census) from January 1985 to December 1992. Subject and disease characteristics were abstracted from medical records, and histology was classified according to the World Health Organization's histologic classification of thyroid cancer. The average annual rate of thyroid cancer was 9.1/100,000 population (119 subjects). The highest rates were observed in the Island of Lifu (31.5/100,000). The incidence was higher in females than in males (age-adjusted rate ratio = 7.83; 95% confidence interval (Cl) 4.47–13.58) and in Melanesians than in other ethnic groups, especially in subjects aged 45–54 years (rate ratio = 8.27; 95% Cl 3.36%20.35) and 55–64 years (rate ratio = 8.83; 95% Cl 3.21%24.32). Most cancers were papillary (82 subjects); for follicular cancers, the increased risk among Melanesians was more marked after 44 years of age. Melanesians were also more likely to have a metastatic tumor than were other ethnic groups (rate ratio = 2.99; 95% Cl 1.64–5.45). With the highest incidence rates ever reported, thyroid cancer is a major public health problem for Melanesians of New Caledonia. <it>Am J Epidemiol</it> 1995;141:741–6.
Oxford University Press
1995-04-15 00:00:00.0
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Effects of Agricultural Work and Other Proxy-derived Case-Control Data on Parkinson's Disease Risk Estimates
Semchuk, Karen M.
Love, Edgar J.
ORIGINAL CONTRIBUTIONS
This study examined the effects on Parkinson's disease risk estimates of exposure misclassification inproxy-derived data on agricultural work, pesticide use, rural living, well water drinking, head trauma, smoking, and family history of Parkinson's disease or essential tremor. The data were collected in 1989 as part of a population-based case-control study of Parkinson's disease in Calgary, Canada. Nondemented cases (<it>n</it> = 130) were selected from a case register of Calgary residents with neurologist-confirmed Parkinson's disease. For each case, two matched (sex and age ± 2.5 years) community controls were selected by random digit dialing. Forty cases and 77 controls were randomly selected as index respondents. The cases, controls, and one proxy respondent (spouse or offspring) for each index respondent were interviewed using a structured questionnaire. The data were analyzed using conditional logistic regression. Incorporation of proxy-derived data for 30% of the cases or controls, or both, resulted in considerable misciassification of exposure for some variables and, in most cases, attenuation of the odds ratio. The results indicate that pooling dichotomously classified data derived in part from self- and proxy respondents may result in biased estimates of Parkinson's disease risk associated with agricultural, family history, and head trauma factors. <it>Am J Epidemiol</it> 1995;141:747–54.
Oxford University Press
1995-04-15 00:00:00.0
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oai:open-archive.highwire.org:amjepid:141/8/7552015-05-11HighWireOUPamjepid:141:8
Type of Ventilation System in Office Buildings and Sick Building Syndrome
Jaakkola, Jouni J. K.
Miettinen, Pauli
ORIGINAL CONTRIBUTIONS
To examine the role of types of building ventilation in office buildings as a determinant of ocular, nasopharyngeal, skin, and general symptoms often denoted as the sick building syndrome, a cross-sectional study was carried out in March 1991 on 2,678 workers from 41 office buildings selected randomly from the Helsinki metropolitan area. The ventilation type and other characteristics of these buildings were recorded on a site visit, and a questionnaire directed to workers inquired about the symptoms, perceived air quality, and possible personal and environmental determinants (response rate, 81 %). The outcomes were weekly work-related symptoms experienced during the previous 12 months and symptom groups defined either by their anatomic location or hypothesized mechanism. In logistic regression analysis adjusting for potential confounders, simple mechanical ventilation (mechanical supply and exhaust ducts) was related to a higher risk of ocular symptoms (odds ratio (OR) = 1.31, 95% confidence interval (Cl) 0.76–2.26), nasal congestion (OR = 1.78, 95% Cl 0.92–3.42) and discharge (OR = 1.44, 95% Cl 0.72–2.88), pharyngeal symptoms (OR = 2.32, 95% Cl 1.01%5.33), and lethargy (OR = 1.71, 95% Cl 0.99–2.95) compared with natural ventilation. Air conditioning was related to a slightly higher risk of symptoms compared with simple mechanical ventilation (for any symptom, OR = 1.30, 95% Cl 1.00–1.68). Steam and evaporative humidification as well as air recirculation acted also as determinants of these symptoms. The risk of the studied symptoms is related to the type of ventilation in the existing office building stock. Future studies should explore the typical functional problems and specific causes connected with the high-risk ventilation systems. <it>Am J Epidemiol</it> 1995;141:755–65.
Oxford University Press
1995-04-15 00:00:00.0
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Paralytic Shellfish Poisoning in Alaska: A 20-Year Retrospective Analysis
Gessner, Bradford D.
Middaugh, John P.
ORIGINAL CONTRIBUTIONS
Outbreaks of paralytic shellfish poisoning have occurred worldwide. The authors reviewed records at the Alaska Division of Public Health to determine the epidemiologic characteristics of this disease. To assess risk factors for illness, the authors conducted a case-control study. A case was defined as illness compatible with paralytic shellfish poisoning within 12 hours of the consumption of shellfish, and a control was defined as a non-ill participant at a meal in which at least one case occurred. The authors documented 54 outbreaks of paralytic shellfish poisoning involving 117 ill persons from 1973 to 1992. One person died, four (3%) required intubation, and 29 (25%) required an emergency flight to a hospital. Outbreaks occurred with multiple shellfish species, during all four seasons, and at many locations. During the case-control study, illness was not associated with the shellfish toxin level, method of preparation, dose, race, sex, or age; alcohol consumption was associated with a reduced risk of illness (odds ratio = 0.05; <it>p</it> = 0.03). Although paralytic shellfish poisoning causes significant illness, the authors could not identify risk factors with clear implications for prevention strategies. This suggests that shellfish from uncertified beaches should not be eaten. Alcohol may protect against the adverse effects of paralytic shellfish poison. <it>Am J Epidemiol</it> 1995;141:766–70.
Oxford University Press
1995-04-15 00:00:00.0
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Decreased Mortality among Contemplative Monks in the Netherlands
de Gouw, Heidi W. F. M.
Westendorp, Rudi G. J.
Kunst, Anton E.
Mackenbach, Johan P.
Vandenbroucke, Jan P.
ORIGINAL CONTRIBUTIONS
Although it is generally believed that a simple lifestyle may promote health, a recent study among Trappist and Benedictine monks in the Netherlands reported an increase in general morbidity (Am J Epidemiol 1993; 138:569-73). As this increased morbidity might be the consequence of an increased life expectancy, we studied the level of mortality among these contemplative monks. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and death rates were calculated from 1,523 monks whose data were abstracted from the monastery rolls of theperiod 1900-1994. For this period the SMR was 0.88 (95% confidence interval (Cl) 0.81–0.95). A lower SMR was present in almost all of the age categories and in all except one of the monasteries. There were two distinct subperiods. In the pre-Worid War II era, the SMR was 1.25 (95% Cl 1.04–1.49), but it lowered to 0.76 (95% Cl 0.69–0.85) after World War II. From 1950 on, mortality in the monasteries remained lower than in thegeneral population, even after correction for the generally higher educational level of the monks. The death rates showed a continuing decline from 1900 to 1950. After 1950, the mortality among monks declined further at a time when the secular trend of decreasing mortality leveled off in the general male population. The higher mortality before World War II was largely unexplained. From the 1950s onward, the mortality among monks was lower, presumably because of the epidemic of lung cancer and cardiovascular disease in the general population. Taken together, the present and earlier data suggest that, among contemplative monks, a simple lifestyle is associated with an extension of life in which they suffer from nonfatal morbidity.
Oxford University Press
1995-04-15 00:00:00.0
TEXT
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http://aje.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/short/141/8/771
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oai:open-archive.highwire.org:amjepid:141/8/7762015-05-11HighWireOUPamjepid:141:8
Historical Assessment of Some Specific Methods for Projecting the AIDS Epidemic
Bacchetti, Peter
ORIGINAL CONTRIBUTIONS
Extrapolation and back-calculation methods for predicting future acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) incidence are assessed by examining how they would have performed at various points in the past. The methods use monthly AIDS diagnosis counts through December 1991 for all adults and adolescents in the United States to predict diagnoses 1–3 years into the future. When used on seasonally adjusted data, the average errors in projections by the different methods are smaller than the possible errors due to uncertainty in AIDS counts. This suggests that measuring and improving the completeness of AIDS surveillance may have more potential to improve projections than methodological enhancements. <it>Am J Epidemiol</it> 1995;141:776–81.
Oxford University Press
1995-04-15 00:00:00.0
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Estimate of Disease Prevalence Using Drug Consumption Data
Sartor, Francis
Walckiers, Denise
ORIGINAL CONTRIBUTIONS
A simple method is presented to estimate the prevalence for chronic diseases treated with drugs that are specific to the disease and must be taken continuously. Data required for the computations involve the total amount of drugs sold in a given region and the mean intake of these drugs, which can be based on the defined daily doses, the prescribed daily doses, or the consumed daily doses. The prevalence of the studied disease is the most accurate using the consumed daily doses estimated in a sample of patients with the disease of interest. Data on diabetes mellitus and intraocular hypertension collected in Belgium in 1990 and 1992, respectively, were used to illustrate the applicability of this quick and inexpensive method. For these two diseases, the precision of the prevalence estimated with the present method is comparable to that achieved with conventional cross-sectional studies, but at a lower cost. <it>Am J Epidemiol</it> 1995;141:782–7.
Oxford University Press
1995-04-15 00:00:00.0
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THE AUTHORS REPLY
Colford, John M.
Ngo, Long
Tager, Ira
LETTERS TO THE EDITOR
Oxford University Press
1995-04-15 00:00:00.0
TEXT
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RE: "FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH SURVIVAL IN HUMAN IMMUNODEFICIENCY VIRUS-INFECTED PATIENTS WITH VERY LOW CD4 COUNTS"
Vanhems, Philippe
Allard, Robert
LETTERS TO THE EDITOR
Oxford University Press
1995-04-15 00:00:00.0
TEXT
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http://aje.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/short/141/8/788
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THE AUTHORS REPLY
Pasternack, Bernard S.
Shore, Roy E.
Koenig, Karen L.
Toniola, Paolo G.
Rosenberg, Carl R.
LETTERS TO THE EDITOR
Oxford University Press
1995-04-15 00:00:00.0
TEXT
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RE: "PREMENOPAUSAL ESTRADIOL LEVELS AND THE RISK OF BREAST CANCER: A NEW METHOD OF CONTROLLING FOR DAY OF THE MENSTRUAL CYCLE"
Massé, Jacques
LETTERS TO THE EDITOR
Oxford University Press
1995-04-15 00:00:00.0
TEXT
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http://aje.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/short/141/8/789
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RE: "COMPARISON OF RECALLED AND VAUDATED ORAL CONTRACEPTIVE HISTORIES"
Realini, Janet P.
LETTERS TO THE EDITOR
Oxford University Press
1995-04-15 00:00:00.0
TEXT
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RE: "THE AGE SELECTION OF MORTALITY FROM TUBERCULOSIS IN SUCCESSIVE DECADES"
Comstock, George W.
LETTERS TO THE EDITOR
Oxford University Press
1995-04-15 00:00:00.0
TEXT
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oai:open-archive.highwire.org:amjepid:141/8/7912015-05-11HighWireOUPamjepid:141:8
DRS. THOMAS AND NOONAN REPLY
Thomas, David B.
Noonan, Elizabeth A.
LETTERS TO THE EDITOR
Oxford University Press
1995-04-15 00:00:00.0
TEXT
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http://aje.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/short/141/8/791
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ERRATUM
ERRATUM
Dr. M. J. Nicolich pointed out to the authors of the paper, “Outcome-oriented Cutpoints in Analysis of Quantitative Exposures” (1), some inconsistencies with regard to the calculation of corrected p values in the example data. In figure 3 (p. 177), the <it>p</it> values of the Wald chi-square test in the logistic regression analysis (method described on p. 174) are displayed resulting in a minimum <it>p</it> value of <it>p</it><inf>min</inf> = 0.009. The correction formula (pp. 177–178) is applied to the minimum <it>p</it> value of Pearson's chi-square test in a 2 – 2 table that is in the example data used <it>p</it><inf>min</inf> = 0.0017. This gives a corrected <it>p</it> value of <it>p</it><inf>cor</inf> = 0.023 as stated. If <it>p</it><inf>min</inf> = 0.009 would have been corrected, the correction formula leads to <it>p</it><inf>cor</inf> = 0.088. In the calculation on p. 179, we have given a rounded value of the minimum <it>p</it> value of the NOEL statistic, <it>p</it><inf>min</inf> = 0.001. If this is corrected according to the correction formula on p. 179, one obtains <it>p</it><inf>cor</inf> = 0.0027 and not <it>p</it><inf>cor</inf> = 0.0036 as stated. The authors apologize for these inconsistencies in the article as initially published that might lead to problems for readers who want to repeat the calculations in the example data used.
Oxford University Press
1995-04-15 00:00:00.0
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BOOK REVIEWS
Grimley Evans, J.
BOOK REVIEWS
Oxford University Press
1995-04-15 00:00:00.0
TEXT
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http://aje.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/short/141/8/793
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BOOK REVIEWS
Etzel, Ruth A.
BOOK REVIEWS
Oxford University Press
1995-04-15 00:00:00.0
TEXT
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BOOK REVIEWS
Miller, David
BOOK REVIEWS
Oxford University Press
1995-04-15 00:00:00.0
TEXT
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Re: "The age of selection of mortality from tuberculosis in successive decades"
Comstock, GW
LETTERS TO THE EDITOR
Oxford University Press
1995-04-15 00:00:00.0
TEXT
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Re: "Comparison of recalled and validated oral contraceptive histories"
Realini, JP
LETTERS TO THE EDITOR
Oxford University Press
1995-04-15 00:00:00.0
TEXT
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